The month can be summed up as relatively quiet on the Oslo Stock Exchange. The oil price (Brent) fell marginally to USD 66 per barrel, while the European gas price was unchanged.
Of the companies in the energy sector, Frontline stood out with a positive sign, driven by a sharp increase in freight rates. Vår Energi, on the other hand, stood out on the weak side, but the other oil and gas companies in the portfolio also corrected somewhat downwards.
Stocks in consumer goods performed stronger, and seafood companies Bakkafrost and Salmar in particular made a positive contribution. Mowi and Austevoll also had good stock market performance. Orkla also corrected a considerable amount downwards, which we used to increase our position.
Of the fund’s holdings in technology and communication services, Atea stood out with gains, while Vend Marketplaces had weak performance in September.
Within the categories manufacturing, materials and supplies, there were large differences in the development. Aker was the largest contributor this month, having signed a major AI infrastructure contract with Microsoft through its joint venture with Nscale. Kongsberg Gruppen, Stolt-Nielsen and Norsk Hydro also made very positive contributions to the fund’s performance. On the weak side, Bonheur and Tomra stood out.
In finance, Gjensidige was the best stock this month, followed by Sparebanken 1 Nord-Norge and DNB. The other companies did not make much of a fuss.
The reporting season for the companies’ third quarter is now ahead of us, which will probably affect individual stocks going forward. Earnings estimates have fallen somewhat throughout the year, mainly due to lower commodity prices and currency effects. We have many cyclical companies on the Oslo Stock Exchange that are strongly affected by global macro developments. In this respect, it will be interesting to see whether the US tariffs have had any significant effect on earnings. With a backdrop of lower expectations, we believe there is reason to be cautiously optimistic.
In connection with the change in FORTE Norway’s investment strategy to focus on companies with an established dividend policy, the portfolio now consists of mature companies with strong market positions in their segments. In the selection, emphasis is also placed on a solid balance sheet and stable cash flows over time. The portfolio is currently well diversified across sectors.
Kind regards, Stein Frode Aaseng
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