Forte Strategisk returned -1.85% in January and is up 1.45% over the past 12 months.

In January, FORTE Strategisk A fell by 1.9 percent, impacted by a significantly stronger Norwegian krone against both the US dollar and the euro.

The month was dominated by several geopolitical events that led to some short-term volatility along the way for shares, commodities and currencies. Before the new year even started, it was the US invasion of Venezuela that stole the headlines. This was relieved by the fact that relations between the US and a number of NATO allies were characterized by friction as a result of the US’s aggressive interest in Greenland. At the end of the month, the increased tension surrounding Iran had a major impact on oil prices. Trump’s policies continue to have an impact on the markets in the new stock market year.

The equity portfolio had an overall positive contribution measured in local currency. At the regional level, Asian equities made the most positive contribution, together with emerging markets. In Europe and the US, the increase was more moderate.

Looking at the sector level, there was also a broad upturn. Energy was the best segment, followed by materials and industrials. Finance and consumer-related stocks did less well.

The fixed income portfolio also made a positive contribution measured in local currency. As a benchmark, the S&P Global Developed Aggregate Ex-Coll Bond Index rose by 0.97 percent. The 10-year interest rate in the US moved from 4.15 to 4.23 percent in January.

Since FORTE Strategisk aims to create good risk-adjusted returns based on the Pension Fund’s investment strategy, we were recently eagerly awaiting the Pension Fund’s full-year figures for 2025. The actual annual report from the Pension Fund will be published later in February, which means we have to wait for details. However, preliminary calculations show that FORTE Strategisk’s annual return was also in line with the Pension Fund last year.

Despite a lot of geopolitical noise and turmoil, the economic outlook looks relatively good from where we stand. The consensus expectation is for total annual earnings growth of around 14 percent in 2026, both in US and European equities (aggregated at index level). We also note that a greater breadth of earnings growth is expected, so that it is no longer driven solely by technology companies linked to artificial intelligence. The reporting season for the companies’ fourth quarter has just started and is expected to characterize the markets in the time to come.

Sincerely

Stein Frode Aaseng